Entries Tagged as 'MegaMillions'

Lottery Jackpots - Where are they?

Lottery Jackpots

Lottery Number Advisor

Recently I’ve been discussing some basic Lottery Strategies that take advantage of a bell shaped curve of a lottery’s performance. I was hoping to stimulate some response but was surprised to see that, instead, I had created a controversy about Lottery Jackpots.

It makes my day when I see other lottery players getting excited about my favorite topic. Their passion for the lottery gets my juices flowing. But, in this case, for the sake of civility, a sanitized version of these complaints goes something like this:

The bell shaped curves are nice but Lottery Jackpots, the actual winning lottery numbers, don’t act like that!

Au contraire mon ami.

How can I put this nicely? Well, I can’t. Not only are my fellow lottery players wrong, they are wrong absolutely and across the board! ALL LOTTERIES, follow the bell shaped distribution, both in theory and, I state most emphatically, in practice. I hope that’s clear enough for everyone.

Now, you’re waiting for me to back it up. No problem. If you were sitting here with me at my computer, I would play one of my favorite games to make a point. I would say to you something like this: “I’m so confident in my position that I will let you pick any lottery at random. Then, I will use LONA™, the Lottery Number Advisor, to make my point.”

So, you choose the PowerBall 5/55 lottery. Here’s the graph of 280 drawings of the PB555 lottery. Notice the Lottery Jackpots, the actual winning lottery numbers, form a bell shaped curve just as theory predicts.

Lottery Jackpots

Not impressed? OK, pick another lottery. You choose the MegaMillions 5/56. Here’s the graph of 282 drawings of the MM556 lottery.

Lottery Jackpots

Are you a believer yet? No? OK, pick another lottery. You choose the Illinois Lotto 6/52. Here’s the graph of 264 drawings of the IL652 lottery.

Lottery Jackpots

We could play this game till the cows come home and the result will always be the same. In fact, I challenge anyone to show me an example of a lottery in the United States or Canada, where this isn’t true. Any takers?

So, where are all the Lottery Jackpots? They’re right inside of that bell shaped curve.

Lottery Strategies #7 - Get Mean

Lottery Strategies

Lottery Number Advisor

As I said in my last post, Lottery Number Patterns and trends exist in all lotteries. All you have to do is look. But, not only are they there, they should be there. The fact that Lottery Number Patterns and trends exist should not be a surprise to anyone.

In probability theory there is a theorem called the Law of Large Numbers. It simply states that, as the number of sample or trials increase, the results will approach the expected mean or average value.

However, as the Wikipedia link above shows, in the short term, the average value can vary considerably from the expected value. That’s why in every lottery some numbers occur far more often than other number. For example, in the FL653 lottery, number 2 only hit 22 times while number 23 hit 42 times. In the OR648, number 16 hit only hit 23 times while number 19 hit 42 times. In the MegaMillions lottery, number 47 only hit 16 times while number 53 hit 36 times. Etc, etc.

How is it possible to find such wide variations in lottery number performance in EVERY LOTTERY? It’s possible because there haven’t been enough drawings yet for everything to average out; for all numbers to have occurred the same number of times. All lotteries are performing exactly as the Law of Large Numbers predicts they should. In the short term, wildly varying results. In the long term, all numbers will approach their expected mean or average value.

Again, the good news. The long term is hundreds of thousands of years. The short term is your lifetime.

So, Enjoy. Lottery Statistics show that those Lottery Number Patterns will be around for awhile.

LONA™ and I welcome your ideas and thoughts on anything lottery.