Winning the Lottery - Trials and Tribulations
Shortly after an experiment begins where Random selections are made, it is not unusual for someone to notice that certain patterns and trends begin to appear. When questioned about this phenomenon, mathematicians respond by saying, “Well, you haven’t run enough trials yet.”
Guess what? I totally agree! But, the mathematician is focused on the long term results because he knows that the results will vindicate his position. On the other hand, I am focused on the short term results because I know the results support my position. Let’s use the classical example of a Random game to see who’s right. Let’s flip for it.
A coin is flipped 100 times. The results are 65 Heads and 35 Tails; an obvious trend appears. The mathematician says, “That’s simply an anomaly. If you run more trials, eventually, the results will even out.” So, the coin is flipped 10,000 times and, lo and behold; 5008 Heads and 4992 Tails. For all intents and purposes, the occurrences of Heads and Tails are equal and the mathematician happily sends us on our way knowing that he has proven that the game is random.
But wait! It wasn’t very random after 100 trials. It was somewhat more random after 1,000 trials. It looks pretty random after 10,000 trials. You see, random is not an absolute; its applicability changes based upon situation and circumstance. There are degrees of randomness.
Some of you might be asking, “What does this have to do with Winning the Lottery?” The answer is EVERYTHING! Because, when it comes to the lottery, the long term is thousands of years and the short term is your LIFE TIME.
So, do you have TIME to play the lottery?
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